The Trans Tasman Pol Pod

Tax is shaping as the big issue for the election, with National and Labour both on the attack over their various policies, and allegations of lying being thrown about. The Pacific Islands Forum has been beset by its usual controversies, with some leaders not appearing, China cast in the role of bogeyman once again, Taiwan in the mix and New Zealand throwing money at a new port at a former military base at Penrhyn on the Cook Islands. There was some good and bad pre-election news for Nicola Willis. On the plus side, ratings agency Standard & Poors has given her something to cheer about, re-affirming the country’s AA+ credit rating with a stable outlook. But the OCR went up, and is expected to do so again before the election. The Green Party says the announcement Methanex is closing removes any arguable reason for the Government to build an LNG import terminal, and is calling on the Government to cancel its plans. As 10,000 public servants, including workers from MBIE, MSD and DIA, prepare to strike next week in support of better wages, the PSA is calling for a mandatory public good test before Government agencies and other publicly funded employers can embark on major restructures and cut jobs. And our guest this time is Associate Professor Gordon Nanau from the Pacific Studies Department at Auckland University who talks about the Pacific Islands Forum and the geopolitical power struggle playing out in the region:

The latest poll out, RNZ’s Reid Research sample, shows National’s leadership coup attempt has not been as damaging to the party as might have been expected. In fact, National’s core support has remained solid. Chris Hipkins has finally delivered some more Labour economic policy, promising the party’s fiscal strategy will grow the economy, get the books back into surplus and make sure hard-working people can get ahead. It sounds very much like National did when it campaigned 3 years ago, and then failed to deliver. Fresh PSA analysis of Treasury’s modelling shows the Government’s ACT driven decision to cancel pay equity claims under urgency in May 2025 has cost the country billions in lost growth, lost jobs and lost tax revenue. Despite clear evidence it has been a failed policy in many overseas jurisdictions, the Government is introducing a Bill to cap rates increases at 4%. Joining us this week is honorary Associate Professor of economics at Auckland University Susan St John. She's not entirely convinced by the Fiscal strategy Labour launched this week:

It's been an extraordinary week in politics, with Chris Luxon once again having to face down his detractors in caucus, and once again winning a confidence vote. Amazingly, in a week in which his MPs tried to depose him as leader, Luxon is ahead of Labour leader Chris Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister in the most recent polls, and the National Party is holding its own. The big mover this week is Opportunity, which both latest polls suggest will be in Parliament after November 7. The question is whether Luxon will rue announcing he won't work with the fledgling party. And joining us to unpack the dramatic events of the week, is political columnist Janet Wilson.

Christopher Luxon has had a bad week. First there was the kerfuffle over his comments to a group of business people in Rotorua, where he insulted one of his party's key voting blocks by telling them effectively to grow up and just deal with tough economic times. He then threw his MPs and advisors into a spin by basically making policy on the fly, saying he'd call a referendum on MMP if re-elected. With 39% of voters believing they are now worse off, Labour is continuing to lead in people’s view of which party is best equipped to handle major aspects of the country’s well being.  It’s not surprising, with the latest unemployment figures also grim for the Government. They show 5.6% of people are out of work, the worst figures since 2015. The latest Taxpayer's Union Curia poll, has Labour in the 20s and National top of the heap in the 30s – but Luxon could be regretting saying he won't work with Opportunity, because this poll clearly has the party gaining seats in Parliament. It seems it will be kingmaker. We know NZ First doesn’t like immigration, but its latest policy announcement seems like going a bit too far. It’s set to campaign on introducing a Kiwi Kids Grant to support New Zealand citizens raising their first three children, through the first three years of their lives. And joining us to talk about this money for babies is Auckland University sociology professor Francis Collins, who says population growth is much bigger than just having babies.

The latest Talbot Mills poll which saw National climb out of the 20s will be good news for the party, but Chris Luxon's decision to rule out Opportunity after the election may come back to bite him. Winston Peters invoked a political storm this week with his attack in Parliament on Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan telling him to "go back to your own country" during a debate. Some called it a sackable offence. National has tried to blunt some of its negatives among women by offering more paid parental leave. But not all at once – it’s not important enough for that. LGNZ President Rehette Stoltz took a positive view of a number of improvements made to the Government’s RMA Bills, reported back by the Environment Committee, but she’s not happy with all the changes. Chris Luxon appears amenable to some regulation of data centre activity in this country, but won’t countenance a moratorium on their approval for a year as proposed by the Greens. And we're joined by Dr Michael Swanson honorary research fellow at the university of Otago to talk about the rise in populism in New Zealand politics and the way political language has become more aggressive.

ACT and NZ First are rapidly becoming bolt holes for failed politicians from other parties where they are retreaded and given high list positions to try to kick start their former mediocre careers. But the resignation of Stuart Nash as a NZ First candidate after a sexism scandal shows the danger of recruiting these failed politicians. Winston Peters  has firmly positioned NZ First as the party of fossil fuel, and in the process backed what in years to come will be seen as the global loser on the energy front, putting it on the wrong side of history. The Greens have taken a bold gamble in their campaign gambits for this year, backing unions to the hilt. Despite widespread anti union sentiment around the country. While Labour was quick to try to pin the blame on the Government, the latest rise in inflation was both widely anticipated, and also mostly imported. And we're joined by Emeritus Professor of Economics Basil Sharp from Auckland University's Business School, who says NZ First's plan to pump a billion dollars into oil exploration just doesn't stack up.

Narendra Modi's visit went off without a hitch and he and Prime Minister Luxon appear to be the best of friends. They want to take the relationship to the next level, which includes a focus on maritime security which could put us offside with China. Another decision which could put us in China's bad book is potentially joining the new Ocean of Peace Alliance between Australia and Fiji. It is clearly anti China, and may necessitate further increases in defence spending in order to meet mutual assistance obligations. The major parties may have to start considering Opportunity as a coalition partner in November, with the fledgling party looking likely to pick up seats. This may put it in the Kingmaker role rather than NZ First. And a number of economic indicators suggest the economy was starting to come back to life - before Donald Trump intervened in Iran again. Joining us to look at some of the numbers is NZIER Deputy Chief Executive, Christina Leung.

Foreign relations has been a dominant feature this week, with the Chinese testing a missile in the Pacific, and the Indian Prime Minister in the country. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making his first official visit to New Zealand, and China's test launch of a nuclear capable ICBM with a dummy warhead into the Pacific sparked concerns in Wellington and Canberra. The IMF has been in town running its rule over the country's economy. The not altogether welcome report has mixed news for the Government. The coalition has been told it needs to get its finances under control and make broad-based tax and regulatory changes to bolster growth. Retailers are backing a move to give security guards more power. ACT is promising to tackle crime in shared spaces, with David Seymour saying "business owners want protection from trained, uniformed professionals. But Police can't respond quickly to every call. Security professionals have the potential to fill the gap. Public Service Commissioner Sir Brian Roche has released the findings of a rapid review into digital delivery across Government. It found that while agencies are delivering important work, the overall system is not working as effectively as it should. And we're joined by international relations expert Professor Robert Patman, to talk about the latest foreign relations developments.

Well there's only been one big story this week of course – Nicola Willis' 3rd budget. Willis is just a step away from Ruth Richardson in her attacks on the machinery of the state and the well being of the down trodden, as she attempts to “balance the books.” There were a few changes on the tax front – and a new tax/levy, much to the disgust of those who expected Willis to stick with her no new taxes policy. But the changes made, although minor from a revenue gathering point of view, were significant in their own way. Joining me to discuss those is Professor of taxation at Auckland University, Craig Eliffe:

Finance Minister Nicola Willis has delivered a pre-Budget speech launching a new blast of austerity described as “public service reform.” This will involve slashing the number of Government agencies, cutting thousands more public sector jobs and boosting the use of AI. Winston Peters is working hard to put NZ First in pole position for when the campaign proper kicks off in October, with the announcement of several significant policy initiatives – KiwiSaver from birth for all New Zealanders, and the purchase of the BNZ from its Australian owners, to merge it with KiwiBank. Three polls in a row have now shown National with support at the critical 30% level or below, with the Roy Morgan sample putting the party at around 25%. It continues to leach support to NZ First in particular. Winston Peters and David Seymour have both tried to outdo each other with their anti migrant policies in recent weeks, now National, which has been leaching support to its minor coalition partners is doing the same, just without the vehemence and vindictiveness of ACT and NZ First. And we're joined this week by Auckland University Economist Emeritus Professor Tim Hazledine, who's not too convinced by Winston Peters' plan to buy the BNZ and merge it with KiwiBank.